# Richard Ngo (@RichardMCNgo) on x

- id: koinon:creator:x_richardmcngo
- url: https://koinonlink.com/kol/x/RichardMCNgo
- schema_version: 1.4

## Identity
- platform: x
- handle: RichardMCNgo
- platform_url: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo
- website: https://www.mindthefuture.info
- country: United States
- entity_type: creator
- person_id: Cross-platform identity not resolved for this creator.

## Reach
- followers: 87139
- following: 2114
- posts_total: 11886
- posts_observed: 6
- posts_per_day: 1.915
- account_age_days: 6206
- verified: true
- size_tier: koc

## Engagement
- status: peak_post_only
- peak_post_engagement_rate: 0.00003
- best_post_interactions: 3
- measurement_source: x_post_interactions
- measurement_formula: interactions on one post — likes, or likes + reposts + replies depending on the discovery path (the two are not distinguishable in the stored data)
- comparable_pool: peak_interactions
- status_note: We have only the single best observed post, so no mean exists. peak_post_engagement_rate is an UPPER BOUND, systematically higher than an average — never compare it against an average rate.
- unit_note: engagement_rate and peak_post_engagement_rate are ratios (0-1); avg_interactions_per_post and best_post_interactions are absolute counts. Read status before reading any number: a null rate has several different causes and status says which one applies here.

## Content
- category: software
- subcategory: ai_tools
- category_confidence: 0.97
- category_source: derived_from_recent_content
- topics: AI alignment field critiques, Knightian uncertainty and imprecise probabilities, Incentives and self-interest in AI and civilization, AI 2040 scenarios and long-term futures
- bio: natural philosopher

## Audience (inferred)
- status: present
- description: AI alignment researchers, philosophers, and technical thinkers focused on AI safety, uncertainty, and long-term civilizational outcomes
- roles: general_ai
- seniority: practitioner
- pain_points: Lack of rigorous formal foundations for handling Knightian uncertainty in AI agents, Misalignment between stated goals and actual incentives in AI research and deployment, Overly optimistic or poorly critiqued AI future scenarios lacking philosophical depth, Difficulty applying economic and evolutionary thinking to alignment problems
- posts_analysed: 4
- confidence: 0.4

## Commercial (inferred)
- audience_buyer_fit: 0.9
- promotion_intent: 0.8
- open_to_collaboration: false
- contact: Koinon does not publish creator contact details.

## Quality signals
- authenticity_score: 58
- authenticity_basis: engagement_observed
- credibility_score: 93
- flagged_for_review: false
- koinon_bd_grade: B — measures Koinon partner-outreach fit, not creator quality
- interpretation: Signals for triage, not verdicts. A flag means the profile is worth a manual check.

## Evidence
- [x_richardmcngo#8cd34313] The field of alignment is full of people who, if Darwin himself had explained natural selection to them, would have asked “but is this useful for getting more milk from cows?” And somehow despite that it’s *still* the best place to get deep engagement on novel ideas. (https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/2072352862647288137)
- [x_richardmcngo#8375a3eb] I suspect davidad’s conception of imprecise probabilities could provide a foundation for formalizing Knightian uncertainty. One intuition: Knightian agents should divide the world into regions gradated by how consistent they expect their beliefs about each region to be.
- [x_richardmcngo#07070b3e] It is not from the altruism of the professor, the programmer, or the politician, that we expect a flourishing civilization, but from their regard to their own integrity.
- [x_richardmcngo#0c75dc71] I’ve been working with the AI Futures Project to critique and improve their AI 2040 scenario. Ultimately I still have serious disagreements with it. However, to their credit, the team

## Provenance
Every inferred field below carries how it was produced. Facts stay facts; inferences stay inferences.

- audience.description: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.4, freshness_days=67, method=llm_persona_from_recent_content
- audience.roles: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.4, freshness_days=67, method=llm_persona_from_recent_content
- audience.seniority: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.4, freshness_days=67, method=llm_persona_from_recent_content
- commercial.audience_buyer_fit: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.6, freshness_days=77, method=llm_scorer — Relative signal within Koinon indexing, not a market-wide score.
- commercial.promotion_intent: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.6, freshness_days=77, method=llm_scorer
- quality.anomaly_flags: source_type=heuristic, confidence=0.5, freshness_days=108, method=profile_snapshot_and_engagement_ratio_heuristic — Means "worth a manual check", NOT confirmed fraud. Flags can be wrong and are not a verdict about the person.
- quality.authenticity_score: source_type=heuristic, confidence=0.5, freshness_days=77, method=Profile-shape heuristic from a single snapshot (follower count, following ratio, account age, posting volume, verification), reduced for engagement red flags where post engagement was collected. Where only a follower count is available the score saturates at 58. — The input set differs by platform; do not compare this score across platforms.
- quality.koinon_bd_grade: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.5, freshness_days=108, method=llm_partner_fit_classifier + fit_score >= 0.6 AND authenticity >= 60 => A; fit_score >= 0.4 AND authenticity >= 45 => B; else C. authenticity < 30 or a promotional-pattern flag => quarantine. — Koinon partner-outreach fit, not creator quality.
- reach.followers: source_type=observed, confidence=0.95, freshness_days=108, method=platform_profile

## Freshness
- profile_checked_days_ago: 108
- content_analysed_days_ago: 77
- audience_updated_days_ago: 67

## AI retrieval
- indexing_requests: 8
- user_triggered_requests: 0
- note: Being indexed in bulk is not the same as being retrieved to answer a question.

## This profile
- Claim or correct: https://koinonlink.com/claim?k=x_richardmcngo
- Request removal: https://koinonlink.com/claim?k=x_richardmcngo
- Terms: https://koinonlink.com/for-ai