# Prediction Labs (@predictionlabs) on x

- id: koinon:creator:x_predictionlabs
- url: https://koinonlink.com/kol/x/predictionlabs
- schema_version: 1.4

## Identity
- platform: x
- handle: predictionlabs
- platform_url: https://twitter.com/predictionlabs
- website: https://predictionlabs.app/
- entity_type: creator
- person_id: Cross-platform identity not resolved for this creator.

## Reach
- followers: 12877
- following: 138
- posts_total: 9157
- posts_observed: 4
- posts_per_day: 2.664
- account_age_days: 3437
- verified: true
- size_tier: koc

## Engagement
- status: peak_post_only
- peak_post_engagement_rate: 0.00062
- best_post_interactions: 8
- measurement_source: x_post_interactions
- measurement_formula: interactions on one post — likes, or likes + reposts + replies depending on the discovery path (the two are not distinguishable in the stored data)
- comparable_pool: peak_interactions
- status_note: We have only the single best observed post, so no mean exists. peak_post_engagement_rate is an UPPER BOUND, systematically higher than an average — never compare it against an average rate.
- unit_note: engagement_rate and peak_post_engagement_rate are ratios (0-1); avg_interactions_per_post and best_post_interactions are absolute counts. Read status before reading any number: a null rate has several different causes and status says which one applies here.

## Content
- category: finance
- subcategory: investing
- category_confidence: 0.95
- category_source: derived_from_recent_content
- topics: Prediction markets, US elections and primaries, Commodity price movements, News-driven market reactions
- bio: A community for prediction market traders. Learn, share, and trade with intent.

## Audience (inferred)
- status: present
- description: Prediction market traders and enthusiasts focused on political events and commodities
- roles: none
- seniority: practitioner
- pain_points: Rapid market repricing on breaking news like oil shocks or election updates, Need for timely probability data on races and events, Tracking fragmented prediction markets across platforms
- posts_analysed: 4
- confidence: 0.4

## Commercial (inferred)
- audience_buyer_fit: 0.85
- promotion_intent: 0.8
- open_to_collaboration: false
- contact: Koinon does not publish creator contact details.

## Quality signals
- authenticity_score: 68
- authenticity_basis: engagement_observed
- credibility_score: 83
- flagged_for_review: false
- koinon_bd_grade: A — measures Koinon partner-outreach fit, not creator quality
- interpretation: Signals for triage, not verdicts. A flag means the profile is worth a manual check.

## Evidence
- [x_predictionlabs#30dca250] /what (https://twitter.com/predictionlabs/status/2069789525279175083)
- [x_predictionlabs#7bd339a8] Mckinney up to 96% https://t.co/XbvdjsIZCv
- [x_predictionlabs#0f18a270] Primary Night Thread — August 4, 2026 1/ Five states voting today. 91 days to the midterms. Prediction markets have already called almost every race on the board. The interesting part is the handful they haven't, and the one place where the market and the polls flatly disagree. T
- [x_predictionlabs#23d2a318] Not much but its honest work, thank you Elon https://t.co/vbSix2NW80
- [x_predictionlabs#e0dd1049] Crude cracked at 11:30 UTC today and four separate markets repriced in order. Here's how it went down: >WTI fell from $82 to $75.65 on Hormuz headlines. >Polymarket's "US invades Iran before 2027" stepped down from 21.5% to 17.5% on $989K of volume. >The S&P didn't move for anoth

## Provenance
Every inferred field below carries how it was produced. Facts stay facts; inferences stay inferences.

- audience.description: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.4, freshness_days=67, method=llm_persona_from_recent_content
- audience.roles: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.4, freshness_days=67, method=llm_persona_from_recent_content
- audience.seniority: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.4, freshness_days=67, method=llm_persona_from_recent_content
- commercial.audience_buyer_fit: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.6, freshness_days=79, method=llm_scorer — Relative signal within Koinon indexing, not a market-wide score.
- commercial.promotion_intent: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.6, freshness_days=79, method=llm_scorer
- quality.anomaly_flags: source_type=heuristic, confidence=0.5, freshness_days=108, method=profile_snapshot_and_engagement_ratio_heuristic — Means "worth a manual check", NOT confirmed fraud. Flags can be wrong and are not a verdict about the person.
- quality.authenticity_score: source_type=heuristic, confidence=0.5, freshness_days=79, method=Profile-shape heuristic from a single snapshot (follower count, following ratio, account age, posting volume, verification), reduced for engagement red flags where post engagement was collected. Where only a follower count is available the score saturates at 58. — The input set differs by platform; do not compare this score across platforms.
- quality.koinon_bd_grade: source_type=ai_inferred, confidence=0.5, freshness_days=108, method=llm_partner_fit_classifier + fit_score >= 0.6 AND authenticity >= 60 => A; fit_score >= 0.4 AND authenticity >= 45 => B; else C. authenticity < 30 or a promotional-pattern flag => quarantine. — Koinon partner-outreach fit, not creator quality.
- reach.followers: source_type=observed, confidence=0.95, freshness_days=108, method=platform_profile

## Freshness
- profile_checked_days_ago: 108
- content_analysed_days_ago: 79
- audience_updated_days_ago: 67

## AI retrieval
- indexing_requests: 10
- user_triggered_requests: 0
- note: Being indexed in bulk is not the same as being retrieved to answer a question.

## This profile
- Claim or correct: https://koinonlink.com/claim?k=x_predictionlabs
- Request removal: https://koinonlink.com/claim?k=x_predictionlabs
- Terms: https://koinonlink.com/for-ai